• The Global Health Resilience group are working with partners from national and regional health and meteorological agencies, and an international team of researchers, to co-develop climate-informed early warning systems to predict dengue outbreak risk in Barbados, Grenada and Saint Lucia.

• The team delivered a workshop, Vector Borne Disease Early Warning System Training, hosted by the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) that took place in Barbados with collaborators from across the Caribbean.

Over the last three years, the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CAPRHA), the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), the Inter-American Institute (IAI), and the Global Health Resilience (GHR) group at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center have been collaborating with the national health ministries and meteorological services of Barbados, Grenada, and Saint Lucia to co-develop tailored, climate-informed dengue early warning systems in these three countries. By combining Bayesian statistical prediction methods with seasonal climate forecasts, the team has created probabilistic models capable of forecasting dengue outbreak risk up to three months in advance in all three countries. Additionally, a dedicated early warning system platform has been co-designed to visualise these risk predictions and to facilitate timely, evidence-based public health responses aimed at mitigating or preventing outbreaks. Full operational deployment of each national dengue early warning system is expected by 2025, with ongoing monitoring and evaluation planned throughout 2025 and 2026.

From 22 to 25 April, CARPHA hosted a regional four-day workshop in Bridgetown, Barbados, titled ‘Vector-Borne Disease Early Warning System Training and Development of the National Health Climate Bulletin’. The event convened over 50 participants from 13 Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) countries, including representatives from national health and meteorological agencies, regional institutions such as CARPHA and CIMH, and researchers from the BSC and IAI. 

The first two days of the workshop focused on training personnel in the use of the early warning system platform, interpreting dengue risk forecasts, and developing effective public health messaging and action plans to reduce epidemic risk in Barbados, Grenada, and Saint Lucia. These sessions were open to epidemiologists, entomologists, meteorologists, and social scientists from the three participating CARIFORUM countries.

The final two days were dedicated to the co-development of national health–climate bulletins aimed at enhancing public health preparedness in the context of a changing climate. These bulletins address a range of climate-sensitive health outcomes, including vector-borne, respiratory, and gastrointestinal diseases. These sessions were open to all CARIFORUM countries, of which 13 attended in total.

On the first day, the GHR team led a series of sessions covering the scientific foundations and practical value of climate-informed disease forecasting, an overview of the country-specific dengue prediction models, and the co-creation process of the early warning system. Participants received hands-on training in navigating the early warning system platform, interpreting dengue risk predictions, and preparing the epidemiological and meteorological data required for operational use. Furthermore, a foundational R programming session was delivered to support the preparation, quality assurance and harmonisation of multi-sourced data. Further R training sessions are planned for 2025 and 2026 to build long-term capacity.

The second day focused on gathering user feedback on the early warning system platform and developing monitoring and evaluation strategies tailored to each country. Participants collaboratively defined key performance indicators (KPIs) to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the system’s effectiveness. A final group activity explored how to communicate outbreak risk and intervention strategies to the public under a variety of real-world scenarios. These sessions laid the groundwork for sustained system use and long-term impact.

Following the workshop, members of the GHR team held technical meetings with key partners from the Barbados Ministry of Health and Wellness and the Barbados Meteorological Service. These discussions aimed to advance and finalise the operationalisation of the dengue early warning system in Barbados. Topics covered included risk-specific public health messaging and interventions, multi-lead forecasting strategies,  technical implementation and data pipelines, and integrating dengue risk forecasts into the national climate service products for the public. These conversations marked an important milestone on the path toward full implementation of the Barbados dengue early warning system.