ASPECT
Horizon Europe project that improves and produces seamless climate predictions covering the next 30 years, and embed these into societally important climate change adaptation decisions applying a user-centred approach to enhance uptake and upscaling.
Our work in this project
Climate research - Our team develops seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions, forecast quality assessment and new extended initialised forecasts together with an assessment of whether they provide improved information for users. We also pioneer new methodologies for temporal merging and downscaling.
User engagement and coproduction - We co-produce cross-scale case studies with users from the viticulture sector to ensure crop production in Catalunya, and with the humanitarian sector for planning anticipatory action against malnutrition in Malawi and Niger. Case studies are used as a tool for engaging with the wider community of practice.
Tailored indicators - The team co-produces tailored climate indicators for spring frost protection, drought and heatwaves, which are useful for the viticulture sector, as well as climate-related indicators of malnutrition, which are of interest to the humanitarian sector.
Value assessment - We work to understand the users’ decision-making strategy, assess the value of currently available climate information, as well as to qualify the added value of the newly produced seamless climate information developed in the project.
Bringing knowledge to society - Our multidisciplinary team works to ensure an easy-to-understand visualisation of climate information and a suitable delivery mode of this information to stakeholders. Drawing on the growing literature and practice around the upscaling of climate services, we seek the applicability of outcomes beyond the pilot use cases.
Why is this work relevant?
Research communities working on weather forecasts, climate predictions and climate change projections have traditionally worked in silos, using different models, methods and approaches. This has created an academic divide that makes no sense from the perspective of users, as they need to simultaneously consider different time horizons in their decision-making and planning. Failing to do so, may lead to poor strategies for adaptation to the changing climate or maladaptation. However, interpreting and using such diverse and complex climate information often requires additional time and resources from the users, which may not be feasible in practice. This is where ASPECT comes in, working to develop seamless climate predictions tailored to the user's needs to facilitate adaptation while building a community of practice that involves organisations interested in jointly learning how to use such information.