C3S Decadal Predictions

This C3S contract involves research on decadal predictions and the development of a prototype service for four sectors. Our research focuses on the agriculture sector, providing forecasts for the following 1-5 years and assessing the forecast quality of the decadal predictions. This information is critical for effective planning, management and decision-making.

Duration: November 2019 - June 2021

Our work in this project

Decadal research and forecasting - We developed decadal predictions for selected regions and variables that could be beneficial to the agriculture sector.

User feedback - By obtaining and incorporating feedback from potential users from the agriculture sector, we ensured that the forecasts provided are clear, understandable and useful.

Communicating research - We collected and adapted the contract’s research and outcomes for efficient communication to a wider audience through the C3S website.

Why is this work relevant?

The agriculture sector is heavily influenced by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The climate can affect crop management, the crop yield and quality, and the development of crop diseases and pests. Future climate information is thus essential for adaptation to the effects of climate variability, improving production quality and quantity.

Decadal predictions can support planning decisions that require several years to be implemented, such as use of new crop varieties, equipment purchase and information on the potential emergence of new pests/diseases. Climate information for the next 1-5 years can also be useful for planning supply chain contracts. Finally, decadal forecasts can have an impact on strategic policies related to agriculture.


Decadal predictions for agriculture

Multi-year predictions of drought conditions over global wheat harvesting areas for the following five years