Forecasting dengue in endemic settings – We are developing spatio-temporal forecasting models for Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia, to be integrated into the online D-MOSS platform. Incorporating oceanic indices, meteorological, hydrological, and land cover data, we asses which combination of predictors performs best in each country. 

Evaluating dengue predictions across space and time – We are exploring the added value of human mobility models to dengue models and evaluating the performance of the model across spatiotemporal scales (province vs district, monthly vs weekly reporting).

Subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions – Climate products are processed, analyzed, translated, and tailored to inform eco-epidemiological indicators of vector suitability and disease risk. We will apply state-of-the-art downscaling techniques to produce bespoke products inform the Mosquito Weather Index (MWI) across Spain from the province to the city level.

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya and West Nile fever, are emerging and re-emerging worldwide because of climate change and globalization. There is a need for better disease intelligence, capable of anticipating and identifying eco-epidemiological risks leading to explosive epidemics and emergence in previously unaffected areas. The basis of such intelligence stems from a deep understanding of the factors that drive disease circulation, emergence and spread. This requires insights into the complex interplay between humans, pathogen-carrying mosquitoes, pathogen reservoirs (e.g. birds), and a changing environment.

The E4Warning consortium takes a One Health approach that brings together an interdisciplinary team with expertise in entomology, movement ecology, epidemiology, Earth Observation science, sensor engineering, socio-demography and spatio-temporal statistical modelling, to deliver open science outputs to strengthen early warning systems. Our work aims to disrupt disease transmission pathways in both endemic and emerging settings through innovative modelling tools and intelligent digital solutions, co-designed and implemented by public health administrations.