IDExtremes
Develop a modelling tool within an open-source framework for climate science to predict the probability of climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks (e.g., dengue, malaria, cholera) several months in advance using drought and flood indicators.
Our work in this project
Co-design and user experience – We promote the uptake of the tool in different settings through co-production and training to ensure it is user-friendly and meets the needs of the community.
Data harmonisation and model development – The team collates multi-source data on disease surveillance, hydrometeorological indicators and socio-economic factors at relevant space-time scales to inform and test the model.
Modelling tool and user interface – We are developing an R package that includes a suite of modelling and visualisation functions to be included in the existing platforms of local partners.
Why is this work relevant?
Interacting and successive extreme climatic events, such as droughts and floods, can trigger outbreaks of multiple infectious diseases. These compound hazards can devastate communities if risk reduction plans are not implemented to protect vulnerable populations. Recent methodological advances in climate-sensitive disease modelling have allowed the quantification of the combined impact of hydrometeorological extremes on disease risk. However, this research has not been developed into user-friendly and sustainable tools to serve anticipatory action planning of a diverse set of users.
IDExtremes will be integrated into existing communities of practice, as a new health service for the Barbados Meteorological Service, a new climate service for the Brazilian Ministry of Health and an early action trigger tool for humanitarian agencies operating in Asia and Africa.