Forest fires
Wildfires have a great impact on the environment and can pose a threat to property and human lives and health. The occurrence of fire in natural vegetation depends on human activities and climate variability. Estimating the expected fire activity a few months in advance would allow the reduction of the environmental and socio-economic impacts, through the development of wildfire prevention and climate change adaptation strategies.
What we do
We use climate information to develop seasonal wildfire predictions that can be useful for short-term adaptation and response strategies to climate variability and change. In areas where the occurrence of forest fires is affected by climate variability, our seasonal predictions of wildfire danger can play a critical role in raising awareness and preparing for wildfire prevention and suppression strategies.
Extreme weather events such as droughts and heatwaves will likely be more common and intense under climate change, exacerbating the risk of wildfires which result in deaths, health problems and economic losses. By analysing observed climate and fire data, we can estimate the response in the number of wildfires and even the burnt area to climate trends.
Seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature are used in conjunction with fire probability models to predict the expected risk of fire activity. This information is key to elaborating fire management strategies, both for land and agricultural management, and minimising the impact of adverse climate conditions on vulnerable sectors.
Success Story
Improved seasonal forecasting helps combat wildfires
We coordinated the EU-funded SPFireSD project to develop and assess seasonal fire prediction capability through a variety of complementary and innovative methods.
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