Seasonal Hurricane Predictions
The Seasonal Hurricane Predictions service compiles forecasts of seasonal North Atlantic hurricanes issued by different universities, private sector entities and government agencies in a single portal. It provides free access to these forecasts and allows one to track the evolution of seasonal hurricane forecasts and how they compare with real-time hurricane activity.
About the service
Our team has co-developed this service with the Colorado State University (CSU) and with support from the global insurance and reinsurance company AXA XL. This service allows researchers from across the globe to submit their forecasts for the following hurricane season and make them available to the broader public.
On the main page, the mean hurricane activity predicted for the season is displayed, as well as the number of hurricanes that have occurred to date. The platform also provides a visualisation of recent forecasts submitted by the main forecasting centres in a single plot, showing whether the hurricane activity for the season is expected to be below average, typical or above normal compared to past climatology (1981-2010). Other available information on the page includes analyses of previous hurricane seasons, information on past annual activity dating back to 1966, and background information related to hurricanes.
Why is this service relevant?
Hurricanes typically occur in the Atlantic Ocean region between June and November. Formed over the ocean, these violent storms can destroy homes and other infrastructure, posing a severe threat to the affected populations.
Various research groups, from meteorological services to academic groups, produce seasonal hurricane predictions ahead of each season. These predictions are generally freely available. However, there is a need for centralising this information and presenting it on a single platform to facilitate comparison between different predictions and make finding this information more accessible.
The Seasonal Hurricane Predictions service provides forecasters with a platform to submit their latest seasonal predictions on upcoming hurricane activity. It also offers the wider public the best available estimate of upcoming hurricane activity.