In the study, published in the journal Geoscientific Model Development, the authors describe this novel modelling infrastructure, designed to bridge advanced climate science and decision support by enabling the analysis of changing climate signals and extremes and their potential impacts on key climate-sensitive sectors.

Climate DT aims to move from global climate reference projections to much more detailed, decision-oriented information. To this end, the system will generate global multi-decadal simulations (looking decades ahead) with a spatial resolution of between 5 and 10 kilometres and an hourly temporal resolution. This will provide a comprehensive view of the climate with a high level of detail to better understand how extreme weather events may evolve over the coming decades.

“We want to turn global climate projections—estimates of how the climate may change over the coming decades at an unprecedented resolution—into useful information for making local-scale adaptation decisions,” explains ICREA professor Francisco Doblas-Reyes, lead author of the study and Director of BSC’s Earth Sciences Department. “The idea is not only to produce highly detailed simulations, but to implement a system that allows us to derive information for analysis and planning in an operational context, responding as promptly as possible to the requirements of climate-sensitive sectors,” he adds.

The system is designed to produce simulations on a regular basis, with quality control and mechanisms to ensure that results reach those who need them quickly, in an accessible format and in a way that enables reuse.

Tailored simulations and data access

The Climate DT also includes the possibility of running tailored climate simulations and exploring “what-if” questions. For example, it is generating storylines that recreate extreme events—such as an episode of intense rainfall, a drought, or a heatwave—under different climate conditions, to explore how these types of events and their impacts would change. This approach helps provide context for specific decisions: focusing not only on how the climate changes on average, but also on how climate change affects events that have a direct impact on people, infrastructure, and services.

Simulating the planet’s climate at this level of detail generates huge amounts of information, so the Climate DT is designed to make these data available to those who need them and facilitate their reuse. Access mechanisms, quality monitoring, and supporting services are being implemented progressively as the system evolves, with outputs already being made available through the DestinE platform.

The sectors in which this information may be particularly useful include energy (to assess changes in wind resources and their variability), water management (including availability and adaptation mechanisms), and forest management, among other areas where impacts depend on extreme events and their short-term evolution. To ensure that this information responds to real needs, the impact-relevant data is being co-designed together with several selected users.

“The ambition is to transform high-resolution simulations into indicators that can be incorporated into risk assessments, planning, and the design of adaptation measures,” says Katherine Grayson, co-author of the paper and climate researcher in the Earth System Services (ESS) group within the same department as Professor Doblas. “Ultimately, this digital twin is intended to put science at the service of society and help improve anticipation of climate change risks and adaptation to them,” she adds.

BSC’s contribution builds on its expertise in climate modelling, supercomputing, the design of workflows capable of handling demanding systems and massive datasets, and the development of decision-oriented climate information for key sectors. Infrastructures such as the MareNostrum 5 supercomputer, together with the Earth Sciences Department’s knowledge in data integration and management, are key elements in enabling a digital twin of this kind to operate reliably and ensure that its results reach researchers, climate services, and end users efficiently. Also key are the contributions of the broad European collaboration that implements the Climate DT, bringing together scientific expertise, digital infrastructure, and high-performance computing capabilities, as well as the strategic partnership with the European High Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC JU).

About Destination Earth

Destination Earth (DestinE) is an initiative funded by the European Union and promoted by the European Commission to build, by 2030, a digital replica of the Earth system to help better understand the effects of climate change and extreme events, and to support public and private decision-making. The initiative is being implemented under the leadership of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CONNECT).

DestinE is jointly implemented through three entities entrusted by the European Commission: ECMWF, responsible for the first digital twins and the Digital Twin Engine; the European Space Agency (ESA), responsible for the Core Service Platform (the access platform); and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), responsible for the Data Lake, which provides access to data and services.

As part of this initiative, the Climate DT is one of the first two priority digital twins developed by ECMWF within DestinE. Its objective is to provide high-resolution, up-to-date, and useful climate information to support climate change adaptation in specific sectors and territories. It is implemented by a partnership led by CSC, currently involving 12 leading climate institutions, supercomputing centres, national meteorological services, academia, and industrial partners, through a contract procured by ECMWF.

The EuroHPC JU awards DestinE strategic access to the EuroHPC supercomputers LUMI, hosted by CSC (Finland) and the LUMI consortium; MareNostrum 5, hosted by BSC (Spain); Leonardo, hosted by CINECA (Italy); and MeluXina, hosted by LuxProvide (Luxembourg), through a EuroHPC JU Special Access call.