Decadal climate predictions
The BSC is designated as a Global Producing Center of Near-Term Climate Prediction by the World Meteorological Organization. Near-term climate predictions operate on annual to decadal timescales and offer benefits for adaptation to climate change.
Why is this service relevant?
Climate information at decadal timescales holds the potential for being of great value for a broad range of users in different sectors, such as agriculture, water management, energy and infrastructure, since the period over which it provides information (from a year up to a decade) coincides with their operational planning.
In the agriculture sector, decadal predictions can support planning decisions that require several years to be implemented, such as decisions in terms of equipment purchase (irrigation plants), the emergence of new pests and diseases, or the use of new crop varieties. Climate information for the next 1-10 years can also help implement crop insurance schemes. Finally, decadal forecasts can impact strategic agricultural policies from a regional level to the EU's standard agrarian policy (CAP).
In the energy sector, within a context of a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix, wind energy producers and operators face the challenge of understanding wind variability at several timescales to anticipate renewable energy generation and demand. Inter-annual to decadal climate information allows stakeholders in the wind energy sector to know about such variations one or several years ahead. This can be useful, for instance, to dimension transmission and backup facilities or schedule maintenance tasks when a period of long wind calms is expected.